Haven Playerbase Chart Analysis

[earllohst]

Recently I feel that Haven development has been great and I'm curious if I could predict how many players will we have in the future with chart technical analysis, pls don't take any of this too seriously as it's meant for fun prediction, we'll see what happens. Just posting this here now so we can compare later.
Data taken from: http://199.233.247.46/RedFox/Haven/Tracker.html (thankyou whomever hosted that)

So there are three ways that I think the chart may go to;

1.Positive Prediction:

First off this is what I think will happen if we keep World 9, that we will have 400 Players active on average by March 2017.
This scenario will be a slow and progressive one, there's been a change in patterns since certain patch, that indicates players being retained and growing slowly.
With regular patches that jorbtar has been delivering I think we'll get there. We hit the resistance bar on around 250 and it's a good momentum with no swingback indication.


2.Negative Prediction:
Now if anything bad happens in the next few or several patches, this is the most likely scenario:

Anyone who wishes for world reset, this is your best bet I think we can have one on January 2017, if we didn't break through the resistance zone and assuming the next several patches are really awful. xD


3.Neutral Prediction:

This is the ranging outcome, a result of par updates or with no new value being added to the game. We'll probably range around 200-75 Players, until we get a world reset or jorbtar intentionally work on big update in one go, essentially holding on regular updates.

Also want to point out the changes in behaviour, not sure if this was parameter set on the tracker for averaging or whatever, interesting.



Btw, I vouch for outcome number 1.

What do you guys think?

P.S. This has been a productive spare time usage. lol

[Onep]

Pretty interesting analysis. I think we're headed somewhere around neutral and positive, personally. I don't doubt though that a reset would have a big player spike. I wonder how well it would sustain the spike though.

[Redlaw]

So far its been positive and I am hoping that trend keeps going. The thing that would make a big difference would be if people drooped the we will wait for the next world mentality. We would suddenly get many many more players if they went screw it and got back into thw thick of it.

[ricky]

good stuff.

looking at the graphs, you can tell that the quest update marked the turning point in player retention. giving players something to interact with besides stat/quality grind probably incentivized players to hang out. that update along with the closely followed realm update probably helps cement players.

another aspect that redlaw mentioned is the 'waiting for the new world' crowd, which i feel has accepted that the world isnt going to be reset any time soon, as state be JLo several times when the world reset threads were showing up all the time. I personally stopped playing after about the third week of the new world, and only began playing again about a month ago.

E: another piece of data to note, we only just recently passed the 6 month mark on world 9, which is about how long W8 ran. so now that the hope/expectations of W9 running 5/6 months like the previous world are gone, maybe more people have opted to join back in.

as for the eratic behavior at the end of W8/beginning of W9, if i were to make an educated guess, I would say it has to do with the large amounts of players getting killed during both of these periods.

now as how to keep this upward trend: I agree with you OP that haven development has been pretty great lately. the steady stream of content updates, along with bugfixes and mechanic polishing is getting haven to where it needs to be. the devs are doing their part wonderfully

as for player contribution, I feel the biggest reason people dont play haven is the learning curve, not permadeath. if you look at the ever popular Dwarf Fortress, it has a near autistic level learning curve, but its player base is huge, mostly in part of the huge amount of community input. my point is: if we want more people to get into haven, we as the playerbase needs to expand our help of noobs. not just taking them in to our villages and physically showing them the ropes, we need to really polish up the wiki (the DF wiki is the only reason I could have learned the game) as well as make more comprehensive, updated guides which can be easily found.

[jordancoles]

Pretty interesting analysis. I think we're headed somewhere around neutral and positive, personally. I don't doubt though that a reset would have a big player spike. I wonder how well it would sustain the spike though.

9 worlds of history says that it we'll be back to 200~ players on average again after the first few months
New worlds are tons of fun, but I think that a lot of people just build their palisade or play until the majority of the playerbase has the ability to murder each other and then they move on again until the next reset

[MagicManICT]

play until the majority of the playerbase has the ability to murdered each other and then they move on again until the next reset

A bit more accurate, I think?

[LadyGoo]

Honestly, I think the devs will reset somewhere around the Christmas time. So they'd have a break from development, while the world would be busy with building up and there will be no need for the meta-game changing updates. At least, that seems to be logical. Wiping during holidays = more people playing = more money incoming (since everyone is busy with catching up with stats, willing to invest).

The upward trend comes from removing all-round caps and inserting inequality, people realizing that the wipe won't be that soon as they've expected, enhancing the profit of going outside, changes of the meta-game.

[Redlaw]

World resets take a bit to ensure the world is working right. I could see them waiting till early next year at the ealiest. Thoiugh the current state of the world a reset so soon might not be needed.

Edit: But I am enjoying this world enough right now i do not want it to end for a very long time. It seems about the time I get my self together in game the world blows up and reforms. be nice to not see that for a change.

[sMartins]

The average duration of the world is like a baby: 9 months , they are all small Jorbatar babies....

[Redlaw]

I would think the devs would want a world that can last years, long enough the game world has a history, that people enjoy talking about. Some of the long lasting Legacy worlds had some very fun aspects to them the longer they stayed around.