Finary Forge - Slag / Bloom

[Aoris]

I've been working iron cast for some days and my success % is very very poor and i can't understand why!!!!

Before the addition of mining skills i had a great success and now although I have all mining skills i obtained:

6 slags / 1 wrought iron
12 slags / 3 wrought iron

[TeckXKnight]

Luck of the draw. That's way too small of a sample size to be meaningful. Any one batch can deviate quite a bit from the average.

[Garfy]

There is always an element of randomness to these things, and unless you have a large sample size (like 10,000 iron bars into wrought) you cannot use any accurate numbers.

From what I have smelted so far, I've got about a 22-25% success rate from iron to wrought (entire process), with all skills except deep artifice. If I get bloom, my success rate for turning it into wrought is above 50% though, the problem is these skills don't seem to effect the chance of getting bloom.

[MagicManICT]

There is always an element of randomness to these things, and unless you have a large sample size (like 10,000 iron bars into wrought) you cannot use any accurate numbers.

You don't need that large of a sample. 300-500 should be more than enough to get an approximate rate if you apply a bit of logic, such as "1:10 chance is more than likely than 27:250 (10.8%) chance" etc.

[Sevenless]

Confidence intervals and P values beeches

Unfortunately, I can't comment on how java pseudorandom interacts with P values.

I've been noticing some weird trends in my own work, I'm trying to pay attention to see if it's actually just bad RNG or if there's a bug hiding somewhere.

[MagicManICT]

Unfortunately, I can't comment on how java pseudorandom interacts with P values.

Thankfully we don't have to deal with Java's RNG. It would be more likely to be gcc since loftar codes the server in C and runs in Linux. Even then, he could be using a custom RNG.

[Drevar]

I think he sits at the server console and when an RNG call comes up he flips a coin and enters the result.....