No pearls

[shubla]

Shubla, I think you're just having shit luck with pearls this world. I don't know what else to tell you. I see people post this same type of issue over on the Path of Exile forums for certain specific crafting items.

Either the mechanics aren't truly rng, but instead suck and favor players from some areas/timezones or then devs have intentionally blacklisted me to not get any pearls.
Something like this can not be explained by the pure luck.

[Granger]

Something like this can not be explained by the pure luck.

That's the thing: It can, that's the definition of luck (see about the chance of a coin toss for the logic behind it).

But a game should IMHO not give the need to do that by making sure that luck has limits.
Especially when it can be influenced by a third party, as we seem to have here with global pools for items that can be exhausted by other players actions.

[MagicManICT]

That's the thing: It can, that's the definition of luck (see about the chance of a coin toss for the logic behind it).

That's not luck. That's probability. Odds of going 0/10 coin flips (assuming "edge cases" aren't counted) is 1/1024. Odds of going 0/1000 in an event that is only around 1/100 is actually a substantial chance to see it. I'd do the math, but it's too late right now. (Not that hard to do, anyway.)

[MadNomad]

...or then devs have intentionally blacklisted me to not get any pearls.

[Granger]

That's the thing: It can, that's the definition of luck (see about the chance of a coin toss for the logic behind it).

That's not luck. That's probability. Odds of going 0/10 coin flips (assuming "edge cases" aren't counted) is 1/1024. Odds of going 0/1000 in an event that is only around 1/100 is actually a substantial chance to see it. I'd do the math, but it's too late right now. (Not that hard to do, anyway.)

In case you bet on a large enough amount of coin tosses the probability dictates (given a balanced coin) that you end up 50:50, in case you deviate from this result massively you have a case of (good or bad) luck - as Shubla has, in his extreme case.

[MagicManICT]

It's still not luck as anyone that flips a coin enough is going to run into this probability. Sure, you might be "that guy" that does it his first 100 coin flips, but in a 50:50 event (actually more like 499:499:2... 2 being the edge case) the probability of even a short run of only the same result gets high quickly.

What you have to look with pearls (and a few other events in Haven) is "when am I statistically likely to hit the x% chance of the event," x being 50, 75, 90, etc. There is never a guarantee, though probability says that even at 1:1,000,000, with enough tries, someone should eventually hit the event (just look at cash lotteries and how long one can aggregate before enough tries are made).

Now that I'm thinking, some numbers:

Assuming pearls are a simple event still at 1% probability:

Odds of finding one in
100 tries: 66.4%
1000 tries 97.7%

Obviously, by jorb's own words, it is no longer a simple event, so we have to figure out when the event has a chance to occur. Any attempts to get the event at other times is always a 0% chance to occur, so attempting to boil a mussel for a pearl at these times is pointless and meaningless. Therefore, cries of "I've boiled thousands of mussels" is obviously not helpful to the situation. If you want to solve the math problem, you have to take a heuristic approach to the pearl problem.

Remember our old beehive bug? Remember what it took to figure it out and how to make hives function properly? Anyone that has been playing here since w6 should. For those that haven't, hives had an issue with the maps unloading and tracking crop pollination for the purposes of generating wax and honey, and tracking quality (they'd hit 100+ quality and then somehow reset.) To get a hive to generate wax or honey, they'd have to pollinate so many crops in a 15-20 minute period. The number of pollinations would determine the amount of honey generated (up to .2L) and wax (1). Im sure the thread is around in the archives. it's an interesting read. It was a lot of work by a couple of dedicated players.

[Kaios]

Did you guys try not boiling mussels instead? I have boiled maybe 20 since world start and while I don’t have any pearls yet I will definitely have a better mussel cooked to pearl gained ratio than all of you when I get one.

[Avu]

The whole pearl thing is retardery from all sides.

I have a solution.

Remove the global pool. Make them a percentage drop again.
REMOVE their status as a curiosity. Just do it. (Alternatively implement a stacking would for chain studying them. Call it pretty pearl poison)
Let people who don't bot have pearls for jewelry again.
Profit.

[Granger]

Chain studying pearls could be solved with Boredom, which would also rid us of the static top-16 list of curiosities (and ignore everything else) to study.

[Avu]

Chain studying pearls could be solved with Boredom, which would also rid us of the static top-16 list of curiosities (and ignore everything else) to study.

Since I'm a lazy bum can you give me that list of curios? I need it for a friend.