Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Jalpha » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:48 pm

AtoB wrote:Question: How is this supposed to practically happen in cities?

It would be difficult to maintain social distancing when collecting essential supplies but not impossible. I can think of simple ways like dividing people by odds and evens (unit number, address) to limit movement day by day or something similar. Problem is too few people are taking precautions seriously.
Do these outbreaks increase the hospitalization rate and deaths?

Yes. It looks that way.
Something is wrong there and I would like to know what.

Your video answered many of those questions. A part of me suspects something larger is going on but I do not wish to entertain conspiracies.

What's the meaning of that? 'Don't care'? Incompatible with mainstream media and from this to be ignored?
Honest question.

It is good to live in the genuine first world. Aside from my reluctance to return to Australia and the interruptions and difficulties I am having in Europe right now I am largely unaffected, not at any real risk and nor is anybody I care about. Add to that a large dash of misanthropy. It's a complicated mess and I have a simplistic view of what is really going on which I do not wish to share. Suffice to say there is a silver lining to every dark cloud.
They are all promising because they all want to secure pre-sales, They all will not have received enough testing, scientists who deal with vaccines expect them to cause more harm than good because of this.

The UK simply seems to be the first to sell their vaccine around the world. I expect these vaccine dramas to be as you say and to continue for some time. However I am happy to see these large sums of cash being poured into medical research. Every vaccine bought provides a return in scientific progress.
I do not expect any significant deletarious effects from the vaccines but with all the talk of booster shots I fully expect bigpharma to milk this situation for all it is worth.
Yet, again, I am unconcerned. I am not an at risk individual nor do I interact with anyone who is and so I do not need a vaccine. No point anyway because as I stated already I suspect this pandemic to bubble away for at least several years more. Albeit in a much more contained fashion.

Lets just hope bigpharma does not squander this oportunity by lining the pockets of investors too heavily.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Jalpha » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:38 am

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MagicManICT » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:52 am


Those folks tha twould have been succeptible to a severe influenza infection are instead being hospitalized for something else?

What kind of correlation does this have with anything other than the age group that are "most likely" to die of either disease--ie those with compromised immune systems?
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby shubla » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:25 am


How about other years, is the 430 same as 2, 3 and 4 years ago etc.?

If it is, possible explanation would be that when everyone is forced to work from home and pay attention to hygiene etc. the amount of other infectious diseases as well decreases. Which is not that surprising.
It may be possible that more people have been vaccinated for influenza as well, so they wouldn't fill up the hospitals or in general mix with coronavirus patients.
EU is actually preparing on vaccinating more people for influenza next year, because of the reasons mentioned above.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby AtoB » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:30 am



This is a chart for Germany, official numbers from RKI, red is influenza and yellow corona:

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MagicManICT wrote:Those folks tha twould have been succeptible to a severe influenza infection are instead being hospitalized for something else?

What kind of correlation does this have with anything other than the age group that are "most likely" to die of either disease--ie those with compromised immune systems?

I would say that it's safe to say that the sole cause for that change in numbers is that the ones that 'died from influenza' the last decades had never been PCR-tested for the presence of the remnants of a coronavirus. Corona is a virus which, again according to RKI, as a virus causes around 15% of the yearly 'influenza wave' infections with symptoms and which as remnants of a virus (the fragments that are left for garbage collection after the immune system dectivated the virus) can very likely be detected (using PCR) in a way higher percentage of the general population (not only of the ones that fell ill from 'influenze').

This pandemic seems to happen in (and caused by) the laboratories. And by explicit policies that prevent people from recovering from covid in England, ever (and other similar shenanigans) and through this driving the death rate in the charts through the roof. And that kind of inflating the numbers seems to happen in plenty, if not most countries (maybe except Sweden)... Why?
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Jalpha » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:14 am

I can't find any pretty charts for flu deaths in Australia and I'm not in a position to put my own together at this time. Although what I would really like to see is the results from Sweden (if they are not rolling influenza fatalities into their Covid fatalities). But here is the data.

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Lets compare to the pandemic (which does have lots of pretty graphs pre-prepared).

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However this is changing quite rapidly as the outbreak in Australia begins to get totally out of control, as shown in this next chart. People are not doing what they are told.

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In the last few days masks have been made compulsory in the worst affected state. Until now masks have not been compulsory anywhere in Australia. It will be interesting to compare data from pre and post mask enforcement in the coming weeks.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby AtoB » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:15 pm

Jalpha wrote:Lets compare to the pandemic

Am I correct that these charts are meant to show humans died with a positive PCR test (first) and humans freshly PCR tested positive (second)? Do you have one for the positive rate of all performed tests (positive tests/total tests per day), to prevent being misled by 'new positives' simply scaling with the amount of PCR tests (or with the inevitable false positive rate of the test) being perfored (as happened in quite some other countries)?

And maybe one about death from pulmonary diseases (like averages over the last some years) to compare against and see normal seasonal distribution for australia, so you can find out if your country has not just started counting the different colors of the socks of people who died?


As a reference point: Your countries Population clock states that there is one death every 3 minutes 15 seconds, this is one every 195 seconds or ~443 per day (on average, you likely have seasonal fluctuations). Given that number... eveb the figures from the second graph do not seem to be threatening, simply as only a tiny fraction of the ones being PCR tested positive drops dead.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Jalpha » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:41 pm

I wish. If there is data of that quality I cannot find it pre-prepared. It seems from my perspective that for all the failings of Australians on an individual level (in my opinion) the acquisition of data throughout this pandemic has been of much better quality than that of many of our peers. The pandemic data seems of an exceptionally high standard compared to other statistics gathered in the past and has been made far more accessible. I can give you this though:

Image

And (may take some time to load the charts and figures):

News site providing pandemic data for Australia, updated daily.

Edit: Yes, your assumptions are correct regarding the two charts you mentioned.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby AtoB » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:33 pm


That is a nice page, would like to have one like that for here too.

Given what I have seen there I would say that it's about the same as in the other normal countries (the ones that both avoided infecting care homes for the old and didn't perform deadly medical experiments on humans)... no cause for panic, just make sure to protect the old and the frail (to prevent the issues Sweden had) and you should be good.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Jalpha » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:42 pm

An interesting sidenote related to the pandemic is that the resulting reduction in Co2 emissions is around what we would need to achieve every year to meet targets to prevent an out of control warming event.
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