Jalpha wrote:AtoB wrote:Given the above: Do all areas use the same PCR test?
I am assuming so. I believe there were test kit shortages in the early stages but Australia quickly began manufacturing its own.
You should try to find out. Because the test is, as I see it, the thing that creates the whole pandemic as it creates 'cases', which are then used to create policy that severely affects the general population in terms of freedom, health and wealth - which should only happen if really needed, not because it's convenient for the government.
One problem with PCR is that the false positive rate goes up with the real positives going down, the other is that PCR
is unable to detect the presence of a virus, best case it correctly detects the presence of segment(s) of RNA it is designed to amplify. Third problem, when one does not know which test is used, is that it is unknown if it'll just detect SARS-CoV-2 or also other kinds of corona virus, in case of the latter the 'seasonal flue' (that I guess starts around july - as on the northern hemisphere it starts in december - and besides influenza A/B/C also always contains beta corona virus) could explain the recent measured increase in cases.
AtoB wrote:What death rate? Cases, IFR, mortality?
Confirmed cases vs deaths in hospital beds.
And, is that function going up or down with time?
Does the increase in cases result in an increase in hospitalization, intensive care and death? Which, as I would guess, it should with a virus?
masks
My issues with masks are: The material is not specified (one self-made from a fishing net is compatible with German regulation, while a FFP3 mask is not) which hints that they are known to be not needed, else selecting a material that would yield protection would be mandated. The users are also not qualified to correctly use the masks, this hints that masks are known to be not needed, else government would mandate repeated education being broadcasted on a daily basis. Mandating wearing masks has not changed the slope of the function (infected per tests performed) the slightest here in Germany, this hints that masks do not prevent infection
or that the 'new infections per day' are solely false positives of the PCR test as no real infections exist anymore - result is identical: in Germany at the current point no effect of masks can be measured, making them both useless and illegal to be forced onto the faces of humans.
Spread is quite clearly linked to factors other than masks.
I agree with that. Washing hands, coughing into the armpit instead of the hands and keeping distance from people who seem to be ill seem to be the main factors in reducing the spread of infectious diseases.
We should concentrate on that and skip the things that have been determined as useless (be it in general or just in the current situation).
MagicManICT wrote:The problem is when people in power are dismissive and refuse to listen to those with knowledge.
This seem to be a widespread issue these days, people seem to select one view and with that become immune to the existance of facts.
The last few pages have come off as dismissing this as something that will become a "norm" or is inconsequential to the existence of humanity. In the grand scheme of the world, it is inconsequential as it's showing to be something that doesn't seriously affect everyone, but much like the bubonic plague or smallpox, it will take it's price in life and loss whether we act or don't act.
Given Sweden compared to other european countries... and the other data over time... it seems more and more likely that it can not be contained as we deal with a component of the yearly seasonal 'flu' - unless you live on an island and cease all physical interaction with the rest of the world for eternity... you can basically forget about it.
What could be done is to protect the old and the frail that seem to be the main target of the illness (and of the other seasonal flue components), hence there are quite some discussions that should have been held a long time ago about if care homes for the elderly should be allowed to be run as profit center with the staff being paid way too little for too much work, possibly even conditions that force them to come in when feeling ill (infecting the inmates).
The question is will it become the new smallpox or polio? Or can we contain it like we've done with ebola (so far).
IMHO the real question to ask should be if 'COVID-19' is really a novelty caused by 'novel SARS-CoV-2' or if we are dealing with something that had been there all the years but was ignored as 'old people die of something' - but has been amplified this year by being able to newly test for the 'cause' and then upping the fatality rate through performing questionable medical procedures on the tested victims because panic and/or greed?
by LunarArchon » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:27 pm 
Better to take an opportunity and gain than pass by on an opportunity and wonder why you have nothing later. If anyone were to ridicule anyone else over this, I'd ask "why aren't you doing this yourself? Is it a cry of 'foul' out of some wrong sense of what is proper or just a pitiful cry of jealousy?" If anyone wants to cry foul over making face masks and other PPE, look to the unfair treatment of people being forced to make them in labor camps. 