Multiply tries chance theory.

[Mateusz_Zboj]

I have a mathematical theory.
So if you roll d6 dice you basicly get 16.6% to roll 6.
If you roll d6 twice (or when you roll two dices) you obviously get a larger chance to get 6 than if you rolled it once. Its logical. (if not for you, then just think about it, do you want two tries or one, eh?)

But what is your chance of getting 6 at least once if you roll 2 dices?

The answer is 1-(1-0.166)^2.
Where the value in brackets is the chance of failure, the level of power is basicly the number of times you retry. This counts for whole chain of tries not specific try of course.

It would be: 0.304444 (30.4%)

Do you think it's true? I found it on some mathematical forum.
So it would be like 400 tries to be nearly sure of getting a pearl.

[btaylor]

I have learned that the game doesn't follow the principles of mathematics. If you want something and the game is in a good mood you can get it, whatever it is. More often than not, however, the game wants you to die.

[Chakravanti]

Math: It's easier just to say God than teach people algebra.

[Koru]

And after all those calculations you learn about pseudo-random generator in java .

[Flame]

well, the random is based on the clock of the pc, so is a good random. But i'm sure that the random of the pc isn't really a random.
When i play dnd, my dice are normal, high, low, middle in the same quantity.
When i play with a random dice generator, that suck and dice are really crazy and too much low.

Someone tell me that the pc random is a REAL random, but i'm keeping hating it, because is a random that you can't find in real events. XD
Maibe is the life that isn't random o.o!?

[ninja_yodeler]

Under every level of apparent chaos there is order, yet when you look at that order you see only chaos~

[MagicManICT]

Under every level of apparent chaos there is order, yet when you look at that order you see only chaos~

If it gets much deeper in here, I'll need to bring my waders to the discussion.

And after all those calculations you learn about pseudo-random generator in java .

It has it's issues, but nothing saying that a programmer can't create their own. There are even several third party efficient RNGs out there for Java.

Someone tell me that the pc random is a REAL random, but i'm keeping hating it, because is a random that you can't find in real events. XD
Maibe is the life that isn't random o.o!?

Anyone telling you that a computer generated number is truly random is blowing smoke. The online casinos are probably the best out there (they pull the most information from unpredictable sources), and yet aren't still 100% random. Of course, life only seems random because we don't understand how to measure the things that seem random. I'm sure one day we'll be as smart as God and be able to predict everything that occurs in the universe. Of course, that means:

Math: It's easier just to say God than teach people algebra.

So...

have a mathematical theory.
So if you roll d6 dice you basicly get 16.6% to roll 6.
If you roll d6 twice (or when you roll two dices) you obviously get a larger chance to get 6 than if you rolled it once. Its logical. (if not for you, then just think about it, do you want two tries or one, eh?)

But what is your chance of getting 6 at least once if you roll 2 dices?

The answer is 1-(1-0.166)^2.
Where the value in brackets is the chance of failure, the level of power is basicly the number of times you retry. This counts for whole chain of tries not specific try of course.

It would be: 0.304444 (30.4%)

Do you think it's true? I found it on some mathematical forum.
So it would be like 400 tries to be nearly sure of getting a pearl.

What do you think? It's pretty easy to do the math to prove or disprove it. Heck, it'd be fairly easy to test the dice problem empirically. If you don't learn it now, there's a good chance you'll need to learn it for college in a statistics and probability class (assuming you haven't passed this point already). But to put some bounds on your problem, what do you mean by "nearly sure"? 75% chance? 90%? 95%? 98%?

You might be making the assumption that finding a pearl is exactly 1:100, even though it might be 1:75 or 1:150. 1% chance is just the estimated chance. As far as I know, nobody has collected the data to show the numbers.

[BigEmpty]

Ehh why people always need to simplify math so badly

In all this calculations you are skipping one but most important part. Statistics is based on huge amount of attempts. So If it says chance to succeed is 1/400 it doesnt mean at all that one per 400 will be positive. All it says in number of attempts close to infinity 1/400 them will be positive.
And if number of attempts is low then number of positive can but completely different than statistic chance ( ofc in both way ). And as infinite number of attempts is impossible to get there always will be something that doesn't fit to predicted gain.

Even with 1mln of trys there is still chance ( higher than 0% ) that you wont get pearl at all. Its slim chance but in this is more truth than in 1/400 clams will give pearl.

[Sitting_Bill]

Under every level of apparent chaos there is order, yet when you look at that order you see only chaos~

actually, it seems like this is not true... and stuff is just random (while also obeying very precise rules of course )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell's_theorem

[joseboda]

When i play with a random dice generator, that suck and dice are really crazy and too much low.

try playing Blood Bowl... The "random" number generator there just plain hates you, the sadistic bastard...

Pearls in H&H are an entity on their own, I once got two in a batch of 10 mussels... and haven't got one since... I must have done something then to please the H&H gods, I just can't remember what