What are my odds if I try and play casually?

[Saif_Mahlik]

I played casually and met plenty of nice people including Russians who gave me a free backpack, so yeah you can play solo no problem!

[Lothaudus]

I like the idea of a hands-off game, but is the player base generally assholes?

Not generally. These days most people are just afraid of you as you are of them. That can depend on what they're wearing and what you're wearing though. Dressing as a nub seems to engender more friendly interactions. Walking around with sword, shield and bear cape... not so much.

Will I play on and off for a week just to have three people come and beat the living hell out of me, forcing me to start over?

Possibly. Basically wall-in as soon as possible as that will keep most people out. Claim the area as a second priority as that will keep the next lot of people out - those that can break walls but will leave scents which may risk their characters. Claiming first is useless - people with theft pretty much know they can steal from an unwalled claim in the middle of nowhere as the chances someone will track them down from it are slim.

That said, I've had unwalled claims that have never been touched in previous worlds as a nub. I guess a farm and wooden plough just aren't sexy enough.

I know there are risks involved with everything in this game, I'm just curious if little-un's are pretty much fish food.

Not really. As for Russians, I've seen more Russians murdering other Russians than Russians that have given me any cause for concern. We even had some nice Russian nudists near our place who ended up horribly murdered with scents all over their camp.

Really, best advice is to just fire it up and have fun. And even if you are brutally murdered because you trusted the wrong person, start a new character and have another go. It is just a game after all and once you know what you're doing, it's surprisingly easy to get another character up and running based at your old claim.

[Wolfang]

It all depends on how good you are in keeping your tracks covered, as Garath says, he has managed to keep himself safe so far. But contrary to what Garath says, there are already many raiders.

[Sotsa]

if you were living in w3, in the right neighbourhoods, and were smart, nothing would everrrr touch you, seriously. I know some people who never saw bigger trouble than some petty thiefs.

Then again, others weren't so lucky.

That's the whole point of the game though. If you're just playing for the farming or whatever, go play harvest moon.

[Eemerald]

i havent had any issues with ppl, everyone i've met including russians, one of whom actually helped me set up my place and bought me food and allowed to gain lp points in order to claim my land, was awesome. theres a lot of settlements close to where i am alone, and apart from some stealing...i.e. my boat and pottery...not sure why my pottery was useful to anyone, but whatever! i's bee fun, and it's a nice elarning process

good luck:)

[Thurrok]

Having a static base is harder than playing as a wanderer / nomad when aiming for a casual playing style. Why?
Travelling the lands, you might come across baddies, goodies, or both, but you have nothing of value and therefore nothing you have to protect. Plus, the chance of meeting a griefer who kills you does exist, but it's far less than having a griefer stumble upon your base (which is there 24/7, not just during your logged-in time).

Your odds of running a (hermit, or small-community) casual settlement are... good or bad, depending on what you intend to do. Here's some thoughts I had concerning this:

You will eventually find that harvesting without a scythe, plowing without a metal plow and living without a cellar sucks. Looking for a mine on your own might be a bit of a boring task (especially the securing / idoling / walling part), and trading for it is problematic the way I see it (atleast for now) in this world. I'm not talking about W3, mind you - it was much easier back then to port to nople and grab some bars for bulbs.

Also, as the q of your goods improves over time, you might realize that you need better protection (that is, brickwalls). Brickwalls need a fuckton of both iron and bricks, which is not easy if you don't invest a lot of time into the game. Palisades, on the other hand, can be broken by a group of baby blue-eyes alts in no-time if you don't check your walls at least once every 24 hours.

Then there's the problem of having unwanted neighbors taking away your supplies... what's to stop them? Teaming up with a major power might be your best bet of surviving, but that usually involves doing trades or just meeting the right people in the right moment.

Silk and steel are not doable casually as they require scheduled, regular logins to babysit them. Cattle might be an option (get a huge pumpkin field, plant it every few weeks with 800+ pumpkins and have 10+ troughs, it should work out fine). In fact, I think selective breeding is something you can do quite well when playing casually, as their q improves gradually without forced interaction (except feeding ofcourse, but that IS doable...). Same goes for chickens obviously.

I think the key points of living casually are knowing your way around HnH and, just as important, having allies to aid you in times of need. You cannot improve your goods' Q as fast as them, but don't consume as much food as they do either... trading, exchanging, or even doing tasks for them might be an option to get them to like you and thus to get your hands on better-grade stuff without spending the amount of work that is necessary to re-invent the wheel yourself, so to say. A perfect example would be buying a q500 straw hat for 18 cavebulbs or some chests of food.

Also remember that in the end, should it all go wrong and you find yourself circled by raiders, archers and whatnot, remember to go down with style and cause some srs drama. Not the QQ kind of drama, but something more sophisticated. Use your imagination. Hire rangers, promise to avenge your ancestors, lure the aggressors into a trap or something. That's what makes endgame HnH interesting. Remember, it's just a game, and it's fueled by - you know - interactions between players and all. No reason to ragequit because someone razed your settlement.

Yea, I know, my post is TL;DR. Anyway, imo it does answer OP's question quite well. Might think a bit more later, but now I'm off to eat.