Omg.

[toshirohayate]

% != whole. :p

1% of 1,000 == 1% of 1,000,000 == 1% of 10. It's a percentage. o.o

That is not correct. 1% of 1000 is a 1/1000 chance whereas 1% of 10 is 1/10 and 1% of 1,000,000 is 1/1000000. I think what you're trying to say is that every single attempt is a 1% chance but the odds are that you will get closer to the median if you do it more than once.

To put it simply, if you had a 50% chance, you would expect to fail once for every 2 attempts that you made. If you tried 10,000 times, you'd expect 5000 successes. Sure, you can succeed every time or fail every time, but odds are that you will be much closer to 50% success rate.

With a 1% success rate, you'd expect 1 pearl every 100 tries. Yes, it can be more or less, but odds are in favor of it being 1 in 100. If you try 1,000 times, as you are likely to succeed once every 100 times, your odds of having at least 1 success are above 99%.

Yes. Every single attempt is 1%. I honestly don't think the odds change no matter how many mussels you have. You could boil 1, and get a pearl. Or you could boil 50, and get a single pearl. It really comes down to chance, not odds. You would assume that more mussels = more pearls. But really, it's always a 1% success rate since you're boiling 1 mussel at a time, not all 50.

I'm not saying you're incorrect Tech. However I think it's more random/chance than statistics. Considering each mussel has it's independent success rate. That's what I was trying to correct the initial guy on, was that you don't times the % per mussels. It's always 1%.

[Cerbreus]

% != whole. :p

1% of 1,000 == 1% of 1,000,000 == 1% of 10. It's a percentage. o.o

That is not correct. 1% of 1000 is a 1/1000 chance whereas 1% of 10 is 1/10 and 1% of 1,000,000 is 1/1000000. I think what you're trying to say is that every single attempt is a 1% chance but the odds are that you will get closer to the median if you do it more than once.

To put it simply, if you had a 50% chance, you would expect to fail once for every 2 attempts that you made. If you tried 10,000 times, you'd expect 5000 successes. Sure, you can succeed every time or fail every time, but odds are that you will be much closer to 50% success rate.

With a 1% success rate, you'd expect 1 pearl every 100 tries. Yes, it can be more or less, but odds are in favor of it being 1 in 100. If you try 1,000 times, as you are likely to succeed once every 100 times, your odds of having at least 1 success are above 99%.

Yes. Every single attempt is 1%. I honestly don't think the odds change no matter how many mussels you have. You could boil 1, and get a pearl. Or you could boil 50, and get a single pearl. It really comes down to chance, not odds. You would assume that more mussels = more pearls. But really, it's always a 1% success rate since you're boiling 1 mussel at a time, not all 50.

I'm not saying you're incorrect Tech. However I think it's more random/chance than statistics. Considering each mussel has it's independent success rate. That's what I was trying to correct the initial guy on, was that you don't times the % per mussels. It's always 1%.

The more you do the more chance of getting a pearl... Or you can be lucky and roll that 1% every boiled mussel... it all depends on what the computer wants to give you +P

[nytro]

I don't think that many people here understand how percentages work, TechXKnight was right on the spot, anyone arguing against him needs to read a little more into statistics. The more mussels you boil, no matter how lucky or unlucky you are, the closer to that 1% mark per boiled mussel you will reach in terms of pearls to mussels.
Let's say a computer generates a number 1 - 10, and on the first set it will do it 100 times. When you look at the numbers, although the odds are that each number has a 10% chance of getting hit, some numbers will show up more than others, because it was only rolled a slight amount. Now, say you did this again, but 1,000 times, then 100,000, and then on and on. You will notice that the amount of times each number is hit will slowly reach and constantly roll around that 10% marker.

tldr: If you want pearls, keep hunting for mussels no matter how lucky or unlucky you think you are, you will slowly get to that 1% of total mussels boiled being pearls, so keep on boiling.

[Cerbreus]

dood its all about luck.....

1% means 1%

some ppl have lucky days, weeks, months, or even years....

Some ppl don't.

regardless on how many mussels u boil the Chance resets after each mussel boiled....

[nytro]

dood its all about luck.....

1% means 1%

some ppl have lucky days, weeks, months, or even years....

Some ppl don't.

regardless on how many mussels u boil the Chance resets after each mussel boiled....

Luck can play a part just fine, but luck is a short term thing, there is reason places like Casinos always profit and why the term "the house always wins" exists.

What you're saying about "the chance resets" is just childish logic mate. There is no "reset", there isn't even an increase of decrease in chance in the first place. What I'm trying to say is if a person is lucky or unlucky, in the end, the amount of pearls to mussels that a person will get will always reach 1%. Now when I say "in the end" I am talking about an infinite end here, and like I said previously, the more mussels boiled, the closer to that 1% average you will reach, and that will happen no matter how "lucky or unlucky" a person thinks they are.

[sabinati]

maybe if it was real probability and not prng

[nytro]

Well even with a prng, it would only change the expected 1% up or down by a few decimals when you let the number of times you boil mussel increase indefinitely.

[sabinati]

well sure on an infinite scale it all works out but when we're talking about hundreds or thousands? not so much. hundreds of thousands, maybe you would actually approach 1% average.

[Mateusz_Zboj]

With exactly 1000 you have circa 99.995% chance of hitting at least one

Lolwut. No you don't. You have 1%. The number of mussels you have is irrelevant. Always 1%. You boil all 1,000 and could get 1,5,60, or 1,000. Or even 0.

Yeah so when someone gives you a d6, then says you can get any ammount of additional dices and then says he'll give you 1m$ if at least one hits 6, you would just roll one because the chance is 16.6% anyway?

[Joe69]

1% chance = 1% chance if you boil 1 or 10000 just like flipping a coin always a 50% chance of heads even if you just flipped 20 heads in a row but statistically very low chance of getting 20 heads in a row but every flip still has the same 50% chance at heads.

Just a last thought has this 1% chance at getting a pearl been confirmed by Jorb and Loftar?