Zirikana wrote:Maybe I'm misunderstanding this... the [-5,5] and [-5,2] refer to upper and lower bounds for quality changes from the original seed after harvesting, right? So in the first case, the average net change in quality will be zero, unless the player culls the appropriate seeds to increase quality over generations. In the second case, the average net change should always be negative over many generations, regardless of the farmer, because the directed random-walk will always pull the seed q down. With 5 chances to decrease, two to increase, and one to stay constant, and with a max of three offspring per generation, even if you pull the best seeds from each generation, you're still losing ground over time.
In either case, if you assume optimal culling, the "rate" of increase or decrease is more or less constant, with a little bit of noise from the RNG. Soil quality in the current system only serves as a target for seed q to equilibrate at, not as a driving force to make it the rate of change faster or slower.
Or am i totally wrong here?
You're kind of correct. You seem to be overthinking the math though:
If your soil Q is HIGHER than your seed Q, your RNG range is -5 to +5. That ensures a roughly equal chance of increase, and at full nature, 3 seeds per harvest, you have actually a pretty good chance of at least staying the same or going up (6 out of 11 total results). Since you're getting 3 seeds per harvest, you're likely going to gain enough seeds that you won't be decreasing the size of your field.
If your soil Q is LOWER than your seed Q, your RNG range is -5 to +2. That gives you roughly 3 out of 7 chances of increase or staying the same, not quite as bad but still pretty decent. This is per seed on 3 seeds per harvest as well.
End result: You'll probably see some increase, maybe a tiny amount of decrease here or there, but not so much you'll be hurting for good quality seeds that will keep you increasing or at least equilibrating about your soil Q.