Russia invades Ukraine

[Fostik]

There is two sides:
Ukrainian government could exaggerate numbers, but it is the only source of truth, I mean each combat battalion reports eliminated targets of their mission, which forms daily report of killed personnel and destroyed vehicles. In addition to this there is x3 of the killed personnel gets wounded and unable to continue serving it's army, means that according to today (Aug 12) report of Ukraine of 43200 liquidated personnel there is also roughtly 120000 wounded, the rates are usually confirmed by analysts and statistics from other wars or conflicts.

At the same time there is other independent sources which analyses destroyed vehicles and liquidated personnel using open sources which is huge limiter during active conflict.

The most accurate report could only be made after the war ends, when all the data will be available and independent services will be able to calculate everything properly, and even here could be disagreements.

[Odynak]

The Ukrainian Embassy released it's latest Russian casualty figures - 43,000 KIA. That's still a huge figure.

And meanwhile the Russians are claiming they've killed or wounded 200k Ukrainian soldiers. Both sides have been exaggerating numbers; active participants in a conflict are never a good source for unbiased information on that conflict. The number of Russian soldiers killed is more likely somewhere between 15k and 20k. There's at least 8k confirmed Russian soldier deaths, but there's definitely more unconfirmed ones.

There are other interesting indirect sources. For example there is a Medal "For Courage". This medal is awarded mostly posthumously. These medals have a serial numbers and these numbers was assigned in sequential order (until it had been found).

And here are medals which had been awarded on the same day - March 3rd. Number 78546 and 83281. If most of them are "posthumously" then there were about 4000 killed during the first week of the war.

[Trappin]

Thanks Odynak. The oryx link is exactly what I've hoped for. A most excellent website. I was mildly surprised seeing the Dutch sending anti-ship missile systems. Seems those weapons paid huge dividends. Another interesting thing being how many Russian command/communication/signals and various other high value electronic jamming and deception vehicles have been captured. A lot of military contractors-manufactures will be inspecting those systems closely. Destroyed tanks and transport vehicles pretty much track common sense reasoning.

The Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine signed various cooperative military compacts previous to 2014. Some date to 2008 and earlier. So Lith-Pol-Ukr Brigade had a framework, funding and organizational chart previous to 2014 Crimea. Ukraine was sending hopeful recruits to officer candidate schools in Poland. My point being - these people were well prepared for 2022. (considering costs etc.)

The reason I chose the 1:4 ratio of KIA/wounded is urban street battles are notoriously deadly. Even halving the obviously propagandistic casualty figures released by Rus-Ukr government agencies leads me to think that the fighting is particularly vicious in nature. The street fighting in Shanghai 1937 was probably 1:3. Very nasty.

If your notion about the medals awarded tracks a through-line to present? I kinda hope you're wrong because if you're right it means a lot of Ukrainian troops are dead. Thanks again for the link - I'll reading it closely.

[Odynak]

I kinda hope you're wrong because if you're right it means a lot of Ukrainian troops are dead.

These are Russian medals.

Ukrainians are in a defense mostly so their losses should be times lower than russians. But an exact number is not revealed by Ukrainian government. And Russian sources provides obviously unrealistic numbers so cannot be trusted.

[shubla]

Ukrainians are in a defense mostly so their losses should be times lower than russians.

I've heard that way that the Ukrainians fight is quite similar to Russians. (which is just throwing bunch of troops somewhere and hope for the best)
Also now Ukrainians have to do offensive operations. Casualties could be quite similar?

https://youtu.be/ZQvQkQP77g0

[Odynak]

Ukrainians are in a defense mostly so their losses should be times lower than russians.

I've heard that way that the Ukrainians fight is quite similar to Russians. (which is just throwing bunch of troops somewhere and hope for the best)
Also now Ukrainians have to do offensive operations. Casualties could be quite similar?

https://youtu.be/ZQvQkQP77g0

Not exactly similar. During the first stage (when Russians attacked Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy), Ukrainian forces did not stay at particular locations but had been maneuvering. This was so called 'asymmetric' war and most likely Ukrainian losses were many times lower than Russian.

During the second stage when the fight moved to the east, it was really similar. And there was a period in May when Ukraine was short on soviet shells supply. Probably, losses were significant during this period.

But later NATO artillery arrived. It is way more precise than soviet artillery. And the war turned again into asymmetric one. Now here are himars and m270 (25 of them already). Before that russians were able to shoot 40-50k shells per day, now it is 15-20k.

Also Ukrainians do not rush with their offensive. They shoot himars and wait for it to take an effect.

[Trappin]

There seems to be a internet-wide search engine prohibition on Ukrainian infantry casualty figures here in the US. I could could spend time sifting through Russian sites but why waste time. American MilBloggers don't even know how many troops are in the field. They design fancy maps with lots of explosion graphics. Nothing specific. If Ukrainians are war blogging none of it is on english search results.

And I very much doubt Ukrainian commanders are dumping platoons into combat zones willy-nilly. Of course troops are moving and maneuvering. This isn't static trench warfare.

[Odynak]

There seems to be a internet-wide search engine prohibition on Ukrainian infantry casualty figures here in the US.

It is not internet-prohibition. Ukrainian officials does not reveal these numbers. Ukrainian allies keep silence too. The only alternative source is Russians but they are bluntly lying to keep their Russian auditorium happy.

[Trappin]

US milbloggers aren't even trying to guess how many Ukrainian troops are in the field. It's very strange. I'm no nooby when it comes to this stuff. I spent hundreds of hours reading blogs dedicated to tracking events in Iraq and Afghanistan 2004-2016.

I know for a fact that during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars news journalists in the US and Europe were reporting on US troops levels in the field. They photographed troops and published images of troop shoulder patches, unit descriptions, and daily KIA/WIA figures. Of course these same journalists lied about events. Mostly to undermine the war effort.

I understand why the Ukrainian government won't release field an casualty figures.

THE POINT IS why aren't milbloggers and journalists reporting the figures - or at least making educated guesses based on the same open sources they used during Iraq and Afghanistan. They didn't bother with - or care about - operational security when they reported on events in Mosul or Basra or Kandahar or Sadr City. But now? Not a damn peep out of the intrepid reporters at The Guardian or The Lancet.

Ive a notion why this is happening, but I hope to see someone arrive at the same conclusion. Because If I say it first it will be dismissed as Yankee propaganda. Or some such.

[lordgrunt]

what would you like to know exactly and to be factualy correct? operatives numbers, their location, movements goals or secret undertakings? why not give it an internet-wide shoutout, maybe include names and adressess? everyone there works under extreme pressure of nearly loosing their nationality, lives and sovereingty. lets put one more big thumb to press on them more, why dont you. being so blog-savvy you could probably take an educated guess from whats happening in the press, shitstorm is ongoing. your informational satiety isnt the goal.