Metallurgy Seems to get Worse Results

[Kazmeister]

Can someone please take another look at metallurgy? Before I got metallurgy, I was getting an average of 3 bars per smelter-load. Only once out of about 20 loads did I get no bars out of a load. Then I got metallurgy, and since then I’ve got 6 loads of no bars, 1 with one bar, and one with three.

I saw someone post something about how it seems like they don’t get nearly the advertised percentage of bars and they had “all the mining skills but deep delve” meaning they were at metallurgy and getting very poor results and everyone commented about how he got screwed by the rng, but this seems too consistent to be random. Getting metallurgy was basically like flipping a switch and going from decent results to terrible results, and it was immediate and persistent .

It’s possible the rng got me too, but seems unlikely.

[discospaceman]

Can someone please take another look at metallurgy? Before I got metallurgy, I was getting an average of 3 bars per smelter-load. Only once out of about 20 loads did I get no bars out of a load. Then I got metallurgy, and since then I’ve got 6 loads of no bars, 1 with one bar, and one with three.

I saw someone post something about how it seems like they don’t get nearly the advertised percentage of bars and they had “all the mining skills but deep delve” meaning they were at metallurgy and getting very poor results and everyone commented about how he got screwed by the rng, but this seems too consistent to be random. Getting metallurgy was basically like flipping a switch and going from decent results to terrible results, and it was immediate and persistent .

It’s possible the rng got me too, but seems unlikely.

RNG got you. Still unlikely

Buy yourself deep artifice and gg

[Headchef]

Small sample size, rng

[Kazmeister]

Well I hope so. Time will tell I suppose.

[MagicManICT]

1. You never mention what ore you're smelting. Casseterite? Heavy Earth? Different ores have different smelting rates. Check the wiki for details.

2. Sample size matters. 20 loads isn't enough of a lot to make a deterministic guess as to the chance of an event when we're talking a 1:20 chance at best for some ores.

[Kandarim]

A good guideline for 'large enough sample size' is ~100 positive results. I.e. once you get about a 100 bars out of your process (assuming each bar is an independent process), typical literature assumes you have a decent idea of the probability rate. I've actually had a smelter with 4 or 5 bars from heavy earth ore! It happens.

[Kazmeister]

It was chalcopyrite. I'm not a big believer in coincidence and when I do 20 loads over a couple days and get ~3 bars per load, and then I get metallurgy and immediately stop getting bars (same day, ore from same vein and almost same quality, no significant stat changes on the toon, same batch of coal) it makes me think maybe there's an issue. All that changed was getting metallurgy and then rates immediately went to shit. Maybe it was just horrible rng, but honestly I haven't tried smelting any more since I posted here as I didn't want to waste any more ore until I got deep artifice. I still think metallurgy may be wonky, but I got enough smelted before I picked it up to where I can afford to wait and accumulate 150k lp.

I know this isn't a big deal in the long run, or for mid-end game players who've gotten deep artifice, but I was just pointing out that there may be an issue.

[loleznub]

I've had 5 full smelters of silvershine be completely empty in a row with deep artifice this world.

You're just getting unlucky. Be happy it's only happening to worthless low quality ore than precious ore / high quality stuff.

[MagicManICT]

I'm not a big believer in coincidence and when I do 20 loads over a couple days and get ~3 bars per load, and then I get metallurgy and immediately stop getting bars (same day, ore from same vein and almost same quality, no significant stat changes on the toon, same batch of coal) it makes me think maybe there's an issue. All that changed was getting metallurgy and then rates immediately went to shit.

Despite what some things look like, coincidence happens. That's why it's so hard to separate some things, and why they teach statistics so hard in certain professions: to learn how to separate coincidence and causation. If you're not a math person, learning this stuff is going to be boring and tiring (or not... might be the one math thing you like), but it is learnable with just a basic knowledge of algebra.