Haven player numbers graphed

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weshesh
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Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:07 pm

Haven player numbers graphed

Post by weshesh »

I graphed W9-W13 player numbers using data from the Haven Population Tracker to rank them and attempt to predict W13 longevity. viewtopic.php?f=49&t=41293

Image
I'd speculate that W12 kept player numbers high initially because it coincided with pandemic lockdowns and that W13 is a regression to the mean.

Raw data
https://pastebin.com/f5CAtZrv

I'm sure some of you have better data that would be more amenable to curve fitting, and I would ask that you share it.
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noindyfikator
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Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 11:10 am

Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by noindyfikator »

Means an average world ends after ~ 215 days
weshesh
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:07 pm

Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by weshesh »

noindyfikator wrote:Means an average world ends after ~ 215 days
Based on wiki data the average hafen world is closer to 400 days.

Code: Select all

8	173
9	324
10	755
11	399
12	392
	408.6
Betelgeuse1284
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Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:51 pm

Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by Betelgeuse1284 »

Thank you, was interesting to see it this way
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noindyfikator
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Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by noindyfikator »

weshesh wrote:
noindyfikator wrote:Means an average world ends after ~ 215 days
Based on wiki data the average hafen world is closer to 400 days.

Code: Select all

8	173
9	324
10	755
11	399
12	392
	408.6
I am looking on graph.

On ~215 day, players stop leaving. Stable number of players is playing (around 150-200). Means world is dead.

Image
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MagicManICT
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Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:47 am

Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by MagicManICT »

noindyfikator wrote:On ~215 day, players stop leaving. Stable number of players is playing (around 150-200). Means world is dead.
Means the game needs something to cause an increase in awareness and to attract players before then.

@everyone: Maybe compare this graph to games that have release cycles and player decay.
Opinions expressed in this statement are the authors alone and in no way reflect on the game development values of the actual developers.
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SnuggleSnail
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Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by SnuggleSnail »

The login counter is per account not per IP. This dataset is worth a lot less than you're giving it credit for
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MagicManICT
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Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by MagicManICT »

SnuggleSnail wrote:The login counter is per account not per IP. This dataset is worth a lot less than you're giving it credit for
Implying only a dozen people are running 10 accounts each? :P
Opinions expressed in this statement are the authors alone and in no way reflect on the game development values of the actual developers.
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Nightdawg
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Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by Nightdawg »

So the crashes didn't kill this world. Something else kills the world every world. hmmmm
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vatas
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Re: Haven player numbers graphed

Post by vatas »

I've been under impression that every world reset has been more successful than the previous, but apparently w11 has the current day 1 peak record?
Nightdawg wrote:So the crashes didn't kill this world. Something else kills the world every world. hmmmm
Server has been more stable than ever (even on first week peak player counts aside couple of hiccups on the first hours), are you talking about client crashes?
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