Smelter success ratio

[zlob]

Hey,
I've been smelting iron ochres recently and with metal working, tunneling, metallurgy skills, I made one bar out of 50 ore.
It makes me wonder: is that just plain bad luck (if RoB's correct, it's at most 0,02% likely) or is RoB data outdated (says it's 12% base + skill bonuses)?
Thanks in advance for your answers

[tyrtix]

weird... recently i've smelted a lot of chalcopyrite and got very, very few bars. I'm going right now for deep artifice but with the last 6 smelts i've got only 2 bars of iron. Was thinking if it was only my problem.

[Granger]

The chance for smelting is set the moment the ore is mined.

[zlob]

I had all mining bonus skills except artifice the moment I was mining that ore.
Also, even if I had no skills, RoB states 12% base ratio, which is much higher than what I got, hence the question.

[tyrtix]

I guess i'm super unlucky, 'cause 2 bars of iron over 150 chalcopyrite is less than 2%, not 5, not with bonus too, and also not got a single copper bar...but i still think i'm unlucky.

[Granger]

It's quite usual for the RNG to shaft you, especially when doing only a few smelts on low yield ores.
The suggestion from back then to give nuggets instead of (no) bars didn't take, sadly.

[zlob]

Current ratio for me is 4 bars for 100 ore smelted, but I understand that this is not enough to be a representative sample.
If the smelting ratio is as RoB wiki says, the probability of such a situation taking place is one in a billion
I don't believe I am such a unique human being
Maybe I can get proper ratios when I learn Deep Artifice skill. I will try doing some research when I have enough time and determination, because sadly the wiki doesn't have information on exact bonus value for each smithing skill.

To clarify my intentions, this thread was not supposed to be a "please buff" or "oh god why me" thread.
I just love knowing maths behing everything that surrounds me and also, if the lack of skill is causing a lower ratio I should probably stash the ore until I get that last, ultimate skill

[Granger]

if the lack of skill is causing a lower ratio I should probably stash the ore until I get that last, ultimate skill

The skills raise the chance of ore turning into metal, but stashing the ore won't help you since (as I stated above) the chance to turn is set the moment you mine it - smelting dosn't involve any skill.

[zlob]

Yes, you are right, my bad
Well, I will stop mining for now, then.
Thank you guys for your answers

[tyrtix]

yep, stashing ores is not a good strategy, thou i still think that in such situations it will be a LOT better to have sort of guarantee hit, like the nuggets thing, or something like.