Dear players,
I'm trying to tame a sheep. but so far I have only succeeded in taming only Ewes and no ram. Six out of six attempts I only tamed the Ewe. I had a problem with this last world too. Does anyone know please if there are any ram nodes or am I just having really bad luck? However, the probability of 6 sheep in a row is only (1/2)^6=1.6%
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dagrimreefah
- Posts: 2648
- Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 3:01 am
Re: Sheep-Ram
Sounds like you rolled a 1. ![¦]](./images/smilies/troll.gif "Trollface")
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lupa737
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:38 am
- Location: stuck in hole
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Sevenless
- Posts: 7704
- Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 3:55 am
- Location: Canada
Re: Sheep-Ram
1.6% is a perfectly realistic roll. Sucks though, gl on future.rizecek wrote:Dear players,
I'm trying to tame a sheep. but so far I have only succeeded in taming only Ewes and no ram. Six out of six attempts I only tamed the Ewe. I had a problem with this last world too. Does anyone know please if there are any ram nodes or am I just having really bad luck? However, the probability of 6 sheep in a row is only (1/2)^6=1.6%
To appease superstition, go find them from different locations.
Lucky: haven is so quirky
Lucky: can be so ugly, can be so heartwarming
Sevenless: it is life
The Art of Herding
W16 Farmer's Almanac
W16 Casting Rod Cheatsheet
Explanation of the logic behind the cooking system
Lucky: can be so ugly, can be so heartwarming
Sevenless: it is life
The Art of Herding
W16 Farmer's Almanac
W16 Casting Rod Cheatsheet
Explanation of the logic behind the cooking system
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ItsFunToLose
- Posts: 264
- Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 10:18 pm
Re: Sheep-Ram
It's actually one step up from 0.5^6 to get the chance of not finding a breedable pair after 6 tames. The first tame is irrelevant. The subsequent 5 tames will be matched to the first tame. So it's really a 3.125% chance. Still absurd and I'm sorry.
It's only 0.5^5 to find the chance of 6 tames not producing a breedable pair.
The true formula is really looking at how many permutations. In this case, it's quite simple: There are 2 ways. So you get something like 2* 0.5^6 or 0.5^5. We aren't asking what is the percent chance of finding 6 ewes in a row, but really what is the percent chance of finding either 6 ewes or 6 rams in a row.
Further, you are taming several species of animals. So we aren't really asking "What is the chance of finding 6 ewes in a row" but more like "After taming 6 cows, 6 sheep, 6 goats, 6 boars, and 6 horses, what are the chances we don't have a breedable pair for all 5 animal types?"
So for this, we have just calculated that for just the sheep, we have a 3.125% chance to fail, or a 96.875% chance to succeed.
so we have a 0.96875^5 chance to succeed for all 5 animal types. Which is closer to 85%. This means that 15% of all players will experience 1 OR MORE failures to find a breedable pair in the scenario where they tamed 6 animals for each of the 5 species.
It's much more common than you think.
Statistics is hard, yo.
It's only 0.5^5 to find the chance of 6 tames not producing a breedable pair.
The true formula is really looking at how many permutations. In this case, it's quite simple: There are 2 ways. So you get something like 2* 0.5^6 or 0.5^5. We aren't asking what is the percent chance of finding 6 ewes in a row, but really what is the percent chance of finding either 6 ewes or 6 rams in a row.
Further, you are taming several species of animals. So we aren't really asking "What is the chance of finding 6 ewes in a row" but more like "After taming 6 cows, 6 sheep, 6 goats, 6 boars, and 6 horses, what are the chances we don't have a breedable pair for all 5 animal types?"
So for this, we have just calculated that for just the sheep, we have a 3.125% chance to fail, or a 96.875% chance to succeed.
so we have a 0.96875^5 chance to succeed for all 5 animal types. Which is closer to 85%. This means that 15% of all players will experience 1 OR MORE failures to find a breedable pair in the scenario where they tamed 6 animals for each of the 5 species.
It's much more common than you think.
Statistics is hard, yo.
I like to air dribble.
